Change: Are You Ready For It?
This week we elected a new president who ran on the promise of change. Change is an important part of our lives. It occurs everyday and affects our professional and social status. The French have a saying, “everything changes, and everything remains the same.” How true. What has this got to do with aviation maintenance?
Well, it would be foolish to think there were no changes imminent in our industry.
A recent article revealed business aircraft flight activity is off 9 percent so far this year from ‘07. Light jets are down 12 percent, while midsize is down 5 percent, and long-range business jets are down 6 percent. Additionally the article stated, “We believe the deterioration in our survey combined with the increase in available for-sale aircraft and decline in flight activity presage what we think will be a significant slowing in new aircraft order activity.” The expectation is that service businesses of the manufacturers and suppliers will be affected negatively. This means lay-offs and work-force reductions. I understand both Cessna and Hawker Beechcraft have indicated they will be exercising various economic restraints with work-force reductions.
While gas prices have come down considerably in the last months, International Air Transport Assn. (IATA) predicts that the airline business will lose up to $5.2 billion this year. That means continued economic cuts, including reduced flights, aircraft, and personnel. In the United States alone some 512 aircraft are being grounded as I write.
There is another kind of change heading our way. This is in the distant, or perhaps not-so-distant, future. The Air Force has initiated two new training programs for drone pilots. One of the test programs will include 1,100 non-pilots who will be given aircraft basics in a small aircraft for six weeks, as well as simulator training, and then go on to UAV training. UAV pilots will not have to meet the AF pilot physical requirements. While we are talking piloting here, it does not take any kind of logic leap to realize that some one has to maintain these unmanned aircraft and that perhaps the maintainers may be actually better qualified to fly the equipment. And it will not be long before we see UAVs as part of commercial aviation. I heard that a major package carrier requested UAV approval for one of its specially equipped Airbuses to fly revenue routes from Alaska to Japan. While disapproved, how far away can this be?
The above are dynamic forces that will affect each of us. We must be prepared as the ripples come our way. And just as sure those ripples will change, we must be flexible and adapt to changes. Change is something we have to accept. The better we accept it and adapt to it, the more successful our lives.
There’s an over simplification here that’s being overlooked. Change is inevitable! Without it we cannot progress or digress & either way we become stagnant. But that doesn’t mean change is always beneficial. For example, new technologies take pilots out of harm’s way in military situations which means less military jobs available. Isn’t one a good thing? So is the other necessarily bad? Where one door closes another opens. I find it ironic though to be quoting the French. They also have another saying “We give up, until someone comes to save us”.
Bob Pasch
Funny how no one asked prior to November 4 whether the promised change would be good or bad, isn’t it? We have some extraordinarily talented aircraft mechanics out there who will be left by the wayside in any industry downturn if they have not been actively engaged in continuing education. Those who keep adding skills will always be able to find employment. Advanced skills and education, it turns out, are the only true measures of job security. Nice editorial as usual, Nick.
Change is the only constant we have. Everyone comes along and wants to change something. Howie is correct in the aspect that the down turn will affect mechanics and it will most likely be those who are complacent. Mechanics who take the initiative to improve their own skills will survive the down turn. As for the military we are now paying a fortune to field the last-generation manned fighter force. Will it carry over to the civilian sector, not for several more years because the flying public will take some time to convince to let a pilotless airliner transport them. Even though the pilot is only in the cockpit to take-off, monitor operations, and land the aircraft. But for the mechanic this is a moot point, as an airplane that flies will break and will need to be repaired. Computer skills will be a must, since the mechanic will be talking to the aircraft through a computer link.
Here comes the future be prepared,
Mike
In response to Howie’s comment, I respectfully suggest that he goes to a neurosurgeon who hasn’t maintained his currency for the last 5 or 10 years for his next lobotomy. That will put his “extraordinarily talented” theory to a practical test.
Bob Pasch